Does It Make Sense For Florida Flagships To Limit Out-Of-State Enrollments?
The Florida Legislature is about to consider a bill to limit out-of-state undergraduate enrollment in the Sunshine State’s “preeminent research universities” to five percent.
The preeminent universities include:
- The University of Florida (20% freshman out-of-state, 12% university-wide, 3% international)
- Florida State University (14% freshman out-of-state, 14% university-wide, 3% international)
- University of South Florida (14% freshman out-of-state, 143% university-wide, 8% international)
- Florida International University (4% freshman out-of-state, 3% university-wide, 7% international)
According to the proposed legislation, the University of Central Florida (UCF) is expected to be certified by as a Preeminent State Research University this year. UCF draws seven percent of its freshman class and seven percent of its undergraduate student body from other states. Three percent hail from other countries. Preeminance is based on a set of standards established by the system’s Board of Governors. This legislation sets several other conditions with resect to teaching “controversial subjects,” among other requirements.
In recent years the Sunshine State has been willing to fund public higher education more ambitiously than most other states. However, no one has stated how the state government plans to make up the loss of out-of-state and international student tuition dollars if this bill passes. It does mention a performance-based incentive should a school’s four-year graduation rate exceed 60 percent, outside of engineering students. Among the impacted Florida flagship schools University of Florida and Florida State University already exceed this metric. Florida International has as well. So has the University of South Florida. The University of Central Florida has set this as a goal.
It was easy to see which schools the legislation meant to target on out-of-state enrollment.
I doubt that the supporters of this bill are much concerned beyond the University of Florida, Florida State and maybe South Florida in terms of out-of-state enrollment. Over 90 percent of Florida International students do not live on campus. That alone tells me that most will already hail from the Miami area. UCF is not overly residential. Just under 90 percent of their student body does not live on campus.
Out-of-state students, while they might appreciate very reasonable tuition and fees, need housing.
The University of Florida (UF) houses a quarter of its undergrads. That’s fairly low for a flagship state school, though Greek life attracts about a fifth of the population. Florida State houses only a fifth of its undergrads. It too, draws around a fifth into Greek social life. South Florida houses about a fifth as well, though that school has other campuses and Greek life is not overly important.
But I don’t buy into housing being an issue.
Last year, the University of Florida announced that it planned to begin construction of new housing, but with plans to demolish three existing residence halls. So, new beds will replace some of the existing beds. Florida State plans to add 1,200 beds. Besides, Florida is geographically a large state. Theee two flagships draw from all over. In-state students would still need housing even if there was a lower out-of-state enrollment and fewer international students.
Who wins and loses if this bills passes?
Florida has one of the most generous resident student aid programs in the country as well as some of the most reasonable resident tuition and fees for its state schools. As a result, 65 percent of Florida’s high school graduates begin their college education at a Florida public institution. Eighty-tow percent of minority students are enrolled in one of the 28 state colleges.
I imagine that most Floridians who were denied admission to the University of Florida and Florida State choose another Florida public college.
Some might have opted for a community college that has historically been a good feeder school for the two high-profile flagships. South Florida, Florida International, UCF and Florida Atlantic have grown their enrollment as well. Florida Polytechnic University, a relatively new school, has grown, too. Serious money has been invested in these schools, and others. I have to imagine that they want larger, or at least steady, enrollments.
So, suppose each flagship dropped our-of-state enrollment to five percent. How will things change?
Selectivity becomes a greater draw–for out-of-state applicants
I’ve often noticed that a low acceptance rate is perceived as a measure of quality when it is really a measure of demand. The University of Florida reported a 23 percent out of state acceptance rate for the Class of 2028 and 19 percent for the Class of 2029. Florida State reported 17 percent for the Class of 2028 and 19 percent for the next entering class.
Out of state acceptance rates at schools such as the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and Georgia Tech have been lower than this for for some time, Yet that has not discouraged non-resident students from applying to either school.
Once prospective out-of-state freshmen see that either Florida flagship has a lower acceptance rate they will apply anyway. They will perceive them to be “as good as” schools like Georgia Tech or UNC-Chapel Hill, seeing an acceptance as a challenge to be conquered, a prize to be won. The university’s leadership could raise out-of-state tuition and fees to double what they are now. But even that won’t discourage applications. from coming in
Bright students from Florida will be more motivated to apply to the flagships.
They might believe that gaining a seat at the University of Florida or Florida State will be less competitive. So, the volume of applications from within the state will rise. That means more competition, especially in high-demand majors. However, the bill mentions nothing about admitting a larger freshman class or more transfer students from within the state. The desire is to replace non-residents with residents.
If the desire is more in-state enrollment at the two flagships, those numbers are likely to come at the expense of other Florida public schools.
Given the generous state scholarship program, it’s more likely that a Florida resident who wants a public university education will choose from the acceptances they receive from in state. That student who gets into the University or Florida and/or Florida State is more likely to choose that school at the expense of another Florida public institution.
Because of this, I picture situations where the less selective state schools target those likely to choose one of the two flagships through larger scholarships and other opportunities. Floridians need to tell me if students will take those offers. Within Pennsylvania, for example, I’ve seen that while Penn State’s main campus and Pitt have exceptionally competitive admissions, enrollments at the Penn State Commonwealth campuses, all but two Pennsylvania State system campuses and Temple University have seen declines. This is despite incentives offered by the schools whose numbers have dropped.
Georgia is another state with fairly generous scholarships and high our-of-state interest in the flagships..
The University of Georgia and Georgia Tech get 20 and 40 percent of their enrollments from other states. However, Georgia College and State University and Georgia Southern University have also gained enrollment that’s largely in state. Georgia Tech also established a number of Pathways to encourage residents to begin their education and a community college. The University of Georgia allows second-semester freshman at any college to apply as transfer students.
The University of Florida offers fewer such opportunities, aside from partnerships with a limited number of community colleges as well as Gator Tracks which is limited to the agricultural school. Transfer applicants must have at least 60 credits and/or the Associates degree. Florida State also offers a more limited number of pathways than one would find at Georgia Tech.
Maybe Florida International University, the University of South Florida or the University of Central Florida benefit with steady or greater enrollment, partly because they’re near Miami, Tampa and Orlando respectively. They can accommodate commuters from the state’s larger metro areas. These cities are also good places to seek internships and jobs. Students don’t face the same competition that they might face in a city like Atlanta.. But I don’t know how other schools will fare.
I get the intention of the legislation-but there are unknowns.
The idea is to make more affordable educational opportunities available to the state’s best and brightest students. However, I don’t know if the citizens of Florida want to be taxed more to make that happen, or if the current and future students will want to pay considerably more to attend their flagship state universities.
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