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WVU and the Demographic Cliff

Published by Stuart Nachbar at June 23, 2026
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I’m a graduate of two large public universities that have serious traction and strong brands: Rutgers-New Brunswick and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Because of my past background as a city planner,I’ve been curious to consider which flagship state universities might be seriously affected by the “demographic cliff.” One such school is West Virginia University (WVU).

Here are four reasons why WVU is impacted by the demographic cliff:

  • The Mountain State ranks at the very bottom in terms of wealth and economic strength.
  • West Virginia is bordered by five states that are also expected to have smaller high school age populations through 2041: Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky and Virginia.
  • The university’s reach was already shrinking before the height of the cliff. In the Fall of 2020 WVU had just over 20,000 undergrads and just over 4,300 graduate and professional school students on campus. .In the Fall of 2025 there were fewer than 18,000 undergrads and 3,400 graduate and professional students. This is despite having a lower non-resident cost of attendance than the flagships in neighboring states.
  • As a result of declining enrollments WVU the university started to make major cuts in programs and faculty starting in 2023 .
Interesting to me: four neighboring states-Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virginia-have flagships that have become increasingly selective for in-state and out-of-state students.

However, WVU has not benefited from this. The University of Tennessee, by comparison, is in a similar situation, but it has become more competitive in non-resident admissions. So have Clemson and the University of South Carolina. However, both states are expected to have larger, not smaller, high school age populations through 2041, T

he University of Kentucky has also seen significant enrollment growth in recent years.WVU’s student body is actually smaller than the University of Delaware’s. Despite being sandwiched between Maryland and Pennsylvania, UDel’s student body has stayed about the same size over the past five cycles. .

There’s some good news about WVU.

Freshman rendition has risen from 79% in 2015 to 85% in 2024. Over half of the classes that entered in 2019, 2020 and 2021 graduated in four years. By comparison, only 43 percent of the class that entered in 2025 finished on time. WVU might not have as many students, but it has attracted students who were more likely to stay and complete a degree.

The university’s financial picture has also improved. Those who like to look at financial plans can check out the university’s FY 2026 report.

I have to wonder if there is a branding issue.

WVU attracts 54% of its student body from other states. Pennsylvania ranks first. Over 3,600 students from the Keystone State make up 17% of their student body. Maryland residents comprise 7%. Virginia residents comprise another 7%. This is understandable. WVU is approximately 70 miles south of Pittsburgh or 200 miles northwest of Washington, DC.

WVU is also one of the few schools that can claim a tie to a hit song. John Denver’s Country Roads, an ode to West Virginia as home is played before every home football game by the Pride of West Virginia marching band, and sung by the fans after every home victory in every sport. Country Roads has an interesting origins story. Country Roads, was not originally written about West Virginia, but now it is a state song as well as a school song.

So, I had to ask myself: why isn’t WVU a second or third choice for students whose first choice might be the University of Maryland-College Park, Penn State-University Park, Virginia Tech or the University of Pittsburgh? Interesting to me: the University of Kentucky appears on Jeff Selingo’s list of Dream Schools.  WVU is an R-1 research university with several achievements. But it doesn’t appear high on a list that gets in front of parents.  They’re going to be more a part of a purchasing decision in the years to come.

Like other flagships, WVU has attractive buildings that reflect well on its history. The visitors center is welcoming and highlights one of the university’s most unique features, its monorail. I concede that I’ve seen nicer student centers at other flagships. But WVU’s has the same conveniences.

Here are some other things to like about WVU
Merit scholarships are reasonable and go down pretty far into a class.

WVU might actually be less expensive than Home State Flagship U for the student who can get into Penn State-University Park, Rutgers-New Brunswick, the University of Maryland-College Park or the University of Pittsburgh.

Morgantown, home to the university since 1867 is a true college town.

To me it was much like State College, Pennsylvania, only smaller and hillier versus being down in a valley. IThere’s plenty of outdoor recreational opportunities and interesting dining places near campus that you won’t find at flagships in neighboring states other than Virginia Tech. I’ve seen fancier downtowns in a college town, but I don’t think that the students are complaining.

Morgantown is actually closer to Pittsburgh  (70 vs. 140 miles) than Penn State’s main campus. I’ve seen schools brag about being three hours from major cities in their marketing. Morgantown is three hours from either Washington DC, Cleveland, or Columbus, Ohio. Traffic circulation is a problem especially on game days. But that’s true for other college towns, too.

WVU is in a very visible “Power 4” sports conference.

In football the Mountaineers have averaged around 52,000 fans per game for the past five seasons. That’s better than Maryland, Pitt or Rutgers which are more visible in larger markets. The Mountaineers drew well in 2025, even in a losing season. The men’s basketball program has attracted more fans on average per game than Penn State, Pitt or Rutgers. Sadly, the women drew just over 3,800 per game in the season that just concluded. But their record was 27-6. The women have made appearances in the NCAA Tournament for the past four seasons. This past season they were Big 12 Champions.

There’s one downside to brining in the Big 12 versus the other three power conferences. WVU has no natural rivalries. The Mountaineers did face Cincinnati while they were both members of the Big East, but the truer rivalries were against Maryland, Pitt, Penn State and Virginia Tech. None appear on the upcoming football schedule, although UVa is a rival in a neutral site game in Charlotte, North Carolina. Last season the Mountaineers played Pitt, in a one-year renewal of the “backyard Brawl,” winning 31-24. But the Mountaineers will not play Pitt again until 2029.

The university has an excellent parent’s association.

They claim over 20,000 members in clubs all over the country. I don;t know of many schools that have such a broad fan base, especially out of state. To me these are great salespeople for a university

In addition, among alumni registered in LinkedIn.com, there are nearly 20,000 alumni based in or around the Baltimore-Washington area. I found the latest alumni annual report that you can check out for yourself. There will be no problem finding an alumni club or a watch party in many cities.

Those who take advantage of the university’s academic opportunities will find many strengths.
  • Honors College admissions are more achievable than they would be at other large state schools, including Rutgers, Penn State and Pitt. High school seniors with a GPA of 3.7 or higher and a 1230+ SAT/26+ ACT are invited to apply for admission. I wish that their numbers were updated. From the information I found, there are approximately 1,800 students in the Honors College, which welcomse 900 freshmen each year. That’s more than one will find at Penn State, Pitt or Rutgers.
  • There are engineering specialties that are difficult to find at other schools such as Aerospace Engineering, Mining Engineering and  Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering. WVU also offers cooperative education to help engineering students build a strong resume.
  • The  Forensic and Investigative Science programs might be some of the best that you will find anywhere.
  • A faculty-instructed, student-run on-campus advertising and public relations firm, the Martin Hall Agency, offers students the opportunity to design campaigns for West Virginia businesses.
  • There are accelerated as well as assured paths to seven health professions included a BS/MD. The BS/MD, is not available to out-of-state students. But that’s typical of such programs at state universities.

WVU inaugurated a new president, Michael Benson, last year.In oner of the interviews that I caught online, Dr. Benson mentioned that he would like to see WVU become a member of the Association of American Universities much like Maryland, Penn State, Pitt and Rutgers. This would certainly help the university’s academic profile. AAU membership is based heavily on academic research accomplishments.

If selected, WVU would be only the 17th flagship that is also a Land Grant university for its state and one of only 37 public universities.. WVU’s freshman retention and four-year graduation rates are similar to the seschools that are already AAU members: Arizona State University, University of Arizona, University of Kansas and the University of Oregon. The four-year grad rate is close to Mizzou’s and Purdue’s.

WVU  has ranked high as a “party school.” .

But so have other large public universities with higher profiles and more selective admissions.  WVU also has fraternities and sororities, but they attract a smaller percentage (10% to 12%) than schools such as UDel (27%) or Miami-Ohio (34%) that have undergraduate student bodies that are about the same size.

Not only will new students need to find their groups quickly. They will also need to get over the party life quickly to maintain good academic standing.  That might be the greatest challenge for a WVU freshman. But it’s the same challenge at many other large universities.

Conclusion

There are flagship state universities that will have issues when it comes to recruiting students from within and outside their states. However, some have higher costs and less national recognition, at least through athletics, than WVU. I’d love to know how WVU could improve its brand recognition aside from having a Big 12 champion football or basketball team.

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